Is miniaturization the first stage of balding?

Hair cycle changes precede visual miniaturization. 

For most people with androgenetic alopecia - the first change is not miniaturization. The earliest changes are so called 'hair cycle changes.' This includes  an increased proportion of hairs in telogen and a shorter anagen phase. What this translates into is that hairs do not grow quite as long and there is more shedding. These 2 changes happen well ahead of any changes in follicle size or calibre (i.e. miniaturization).